2006 (2005?)
Oscar Predictions
And now for the moment you've all been
waiting for....
It's time once again for our annual analysis of the year's Academy
Awards nominees, and the official TheWVSR Oscar Predictions for 2006!
Well, at least in the categories people give a crap about. I mean, I'm a
very busy man and don't have time for such things as choreography and
films in which people talk in languages that sound like somebody's
clearing their throat. Let's be reasonable here.
And I'm a little confused about calling this the 2006 awards, since it's
really the 2005 awards being handed out in 2006. But whatever. You know
what I'm talking about. Sweet sainted mother of Wolfman Jack.
Let's get started, shall we?
Actor - Supporting
George Clooney Syriana
Matt Dillon Crash
Paul Giamatti Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal Brokeback Mountain
William Hurt A History of Violence
I can't stomach George Clooney. He's one of those people who, no matter
how hard I try to avoid it, always makes me shout "Oh, blow it out
your ass!" whenever I see him being interviewed. So he's
automatically out. I'm not familiar with Jack Glockenspiel, and have
only a vague idea of who William Hurt and Paul Giamatti are. I actually
saw Crash, and liked it. And Matt Dillon was in one of my
favorite teen angst movies, Over the Edge. (Yes, in 1979. What of
it?) But he won't win; I don't believe he's viewed as a serious
artist by the Hollywood ass-stick crowd. My ever-expanding gut is
telling me that Paul Giamatti will take home the trophy. I
haven't seen the movie, but I'm getting strong vibrations from his name
when I scan the list.
Actress - Supporting
Amy Adams Junebug
Catherine Keener Capote
Frances McDormand North Country
Rachel Weisz The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams Brokeback Mountain
I saw Junebug and thought it was great. And wasn't Frances
McDormand in Fargo talking all wacky and wearing comical hats?
Beyond that, I don't know who any of these people are. But I'm going to
go with the woman in Brokeback, Michelle Williams. Because
I think it would be ironic for a much-hyped movie about a couple of
closeted shepherds to produce only one acting award -- and it go to a
woman. In the end (so to speak), I think it'll be Michelle. Whoever she
is.
Actor - Leading
Philip Seymour Hoffman Capote
Terrence Howard Hustle & Flow
Heath Ledger Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix Walk the Line
David Strathaim Good Night, And Good Luck
I haven't seen any of these films, but I have seen TV
commercials for many of them. And I know that the guy who played Truman
Capote used a novelty voice, which I think will ultimately tip the
scales in his favor. The Academy can't seem to resist actors portraying
the retarded, the afflicted, and the irritating. People like Nicolas
Cage have built a career around it. And Philip Seymour Hoffman's
memorable "effeminate man with jaws wired shut" performance
will make him an Oscar winner on Sunday night.
Actress - Leading
Judi Dench Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman Transamerica
Keira Knightley Pride & Prejudice
Charlize Theron North Country
Reese Witherspoon Walk the Line
Reese Witherspoon will win this one. I hear she was brilliant
at portraying the late, great Johnny Cash. She's come a long way since Miss
Congeniality, huh? Judi Dench is nominated for something at every
awards show but never wins; I believe she was once even nominated for
Controller of the Year by the company I work for, and was beaten by Joe
MacDonald at the Chicago branch. I've heard of that Charlize person, but
wouldn't know her if she knocked on my front door. And I don't have a
clue about the other two. The Johnny Cash movie is in my Netflix queue
(currently listed as "long wait"), but I'm not familiar with
the rest of the films. The entire category is fairly mysterious to me,
yet I know who the winner will be.
Directing
Bennet Miller Capote
Ang Lee Brokeback Mountain
Steven Spielberg Munich
Paul Haggis Crash
George Clooney Good Night, And Good Luck
Here's where the gay sheepherder train really starts rolling…. Ang
Lee will easily take the prize, for his tale of forbidden prairie
love. Or whatever. It's one of those I dare you to criticize it
movies, and the Academy really gets behind that sort of thing (so to
speak). Crash is a great stylish movie, but it came out a
lifetime ago and wasn't controversial or popular enough. The others? No.
I hope ol' Ang has his brave and inspiring breaking-down-the-barriers
speech ready, because America is ready to pat itself on the brokeback.
Best Picture
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, And Good Luck
Munich
Brokeback Mountain will be the movie of the year, obviously.
And I wouldn't see it if it were about a man and a woman, so why should
I watch it just because it's about a man and a man? To show how deliciously
sophisticated I am? Please. I think I'll just stick with the Deuce
Bigelow series, thank you very much. I will rent Capote when
it comes to DVD, but am still on the fence about the other two. There's
only so much "brilliance" that one man can take. Ya know? And,
of course, there's that whole Clooney insufferable-prick factor to
consider.
Now it's your turn. Leave your picks at the comments link below, and
we'll compare notes on Monday. What? You say this wasn't at all what you were waiting
for? That there must be some misunderstanding? Yeah, quit yer bitching
and pass the liquefied cheese.
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